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      <h1 class="post-title">疫情下的中日塑料情</h1>

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        <span class="post-time"> 2020-02-16 </span>
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            <a href="/categories/%E6%97%B6%E8%AF%84/"> 时评 </a>
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          <span class="more-meta"> 约 1167 字 </span>
          <span class="more-meta"> 预计阅读 3 分钟 </span>
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      <figure class="center"><img src="https://5b0988e595225.cdn.sohucs.com/images/20200203/ce8f375f5999491b96f45a382d56771d.jpeg"
         alt="山川异域，风月同天"/><figcaption>
            <h4>图 | 「山川异域，风月同天」</h4>
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</figure>
<h2 id="1">1</h2>
<p>找不出哪个国家像日本一样，能周期性地激起中国民意如此不合理的大幅摇摆。这次新冠疫情，日本在「赈灾物资斗诗法会」中靠「山川异域，风月同天」和「岂曰无衣，与子同袍」一举胜出，朝野和民间又广泛踊跃援助，引得国内观感大好，一时感恩雷动。——还记得吗？仅仅几个月之前，两国还彼此嫌弃无比。日本有80%的人讨厌中国，在西方国家排名第一。中国厌日的比例未必那么高，但论讨厌对象，日本不会掉出前三，电视台排满了抗日神剧。怎么一场大疫，冤家的感情就能拉近这么多？</p>
<p>这恰好说明，两国彼此的厌恶情绪，是被不合理放大了的、偏离实际的。所以只要稍微有点扰动，就会急剧向均数回归。</p>
<h2 id="2">2</h2>
<p>有个很有趣的现象，尽管日本网民平时总是非常嫌弃中国（仅次于韩国），但只要出现诸如「中国医生在日本急救心梗路人」这类正面事件，这些人就会立即表达「中国人也还是不错的」的评论。同样，如果日本人对中国做了点好事，网民也会密集地表达感激。这就有点像亲近的人怄气，任何一方给个台阶，另一方就会自觉往下走，甚至走得矫枉过正。</p>
<p>事实上，这次的援助物资，多数来自旅日华人。附诗，多数也是旅日华人特定选的。比如「风月同天」，是HSK写的，HSK是汉语考试院，一堆中国人；「与子同袍」，是几个中资公司联合捐的，诗是一个中国留学生选的。日本网上依然有大把反华的评论，随着疫情加重，骂得越来越难听。安倍出于政治和经济利益考量，拒绝对华封关，日本民间一片反对，随着本国疫情吃紧，甚至支持率都掉到40%了。「纯来自」日本的捐助强度，整体并不比汶川地震时大多少——日本作为多年的慈善大国，保持了正常发挥——巨大的增量主要来自海外游子……</p>
<p>但我们依然选择了下这个台阶。我们需要这份感动。</p>
<h2 id="3">3</h2>
<p>东亚三国的互相嫌弃，实际都是过当的，是「现实利益+历史纠葛」交相发酵出来的死亡螺旋。正是因为现实利益难以满足，才不得不诉诸「历史纠葛」这个劫材。但反复打劫，说明什么问题？说明走到死局里了，脱不了困。长远来讲，还是要抓紧闯王当政这个宝贵的时间窗口，迅速实现互谅，才能大踏步往前走。</p>
<p>当然，轻言「谅解」是不现实的。中华民族这个共同体，本质上是抗战逼出来的；中国作为一个民族国家，是巨大的外部压力形塑出来的——这才是每过一段时间就要仇一次日的根本原因。如果缺乏共同外部压力，中国作为一个事实上的文明型国家，就会退回地域、宗族相争的旧态，成为一个文化上的大散装联盟。所以疫情结束后，中日互相欣赏的情绪还是会和汶川地震后一样快速消退。长远来说，东亚三国在产业布局上高度近似，除非中国辟出新路，不然早晚还是内卷化。</p>
<p>不过，此番塑料友谊或许也能延续更长的时间。现在是日本捐空口罩帮中国，但照这个苗头下去，很快也许他们也要进入流行期了。「山川异域，水火同天」，到时候我们免不了也得去回过头援助他们。</p>
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